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Brazil - Serie A | Regular Season - 18
Sat 30 May at 20:30
Bahia
Elo: 1690
vs
Botafogo
Elo: 1500
Prediction: Home Win (2-0)

Match Result Prediction

80%Very High
62%21%16%
HomeDrawAway
Most likely scoreline: 2-0

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
41%
BTTS Yes
50%

Model Breakdown

eloH: 65% | D: 20% | A: 15%
poissonH: 74% | D: 17% | A: 8%

AI Match Analysis

Powered by data-driven models

Independent analysis based on form, Elo ratings, H2H records, injuries, and squad data

Bahia host Botafogo in the Serie A with significant stakes for both sides. Bahia currently sit 7th in the table with 23 points, while Botafogo are 10thwith 22 points.

Bahia have been prolific this season, averaging 2.1 goals per game. Their defensive record is impressive, conceding only 0.8 per match with 5 clean sheets in their last 10. At home, Bahia average 2.4 goals, while Botafogo concede 1.6 on the road — a matchup that favours the hosts.

Goals are expected — Bahia have seen Over 2.5 in 8/10 recent matches, Botafogo in 8/10. Both teams to score looks likely given the BTTS record: Bahia 5/10, Botafogo 9/10.

Our Elo model rates Bahia significantly higher (1690 vs 1500), suggesting a clear quality advantage.

Verdict

Our analysis strongly favours Bahia to take all three points. With a 62% win probability and a predicted scoreline of 2-0, the hosts have the edge in form, quality, and home advantage. Our confidence level is high (80%), with strong agreement across all prediction models (Elo, Poisson, and Form). On the goals front, Over 2.5 Goals (63%) looks a solid proposition.

Form Comparison

Bahia
Stat
Botafogo
Last 5
2.1
Avg Scored
1.5
0.8
Avg Conceded
1.4
-
Avg Possession
-
5
Clean Sheets
3
7
League Pos
10