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Brazil - Serie A | Regular Season - 17
Mon 25 May at 23:00
Coritiba
Elo: 1619
3 - 1
Bahia
Elo: 1679
Prediction: Away Win (1-1)

Match Result Prediction

58%Low
34%30%36%
HomeDrawAway
Most likely scoreline: 1-1

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
BTTS Yes
57%

Model Breakdown

eloH: 33% | D: 30% | A: 37%
poissonH: 34% | D: 29% | A: 38%

AI Match Analysis

Powered by data-driven models

Independent analysis based on form, Elo ratings, H2H records, injuries, and squad data

Coritiba host Bahia in the Serie A with significant stakes for both sides. Coritiba currently sit 6th in the table with 26 points, while Bahia are 8thwith 23 points.

Coritiba have been prolific this season, averaging 1.8 goals per game. Bahia carry a dangerous attack averaging 2.1 goals. Bahia's defence has been solid, conceding just 0.8 per game. At home, Coritiba average 2.1 goals, while Bahia concede 0.9 on the road — a matchup that favours the hosts.

In head-to-head meetings (1 matches), Coritiba have won 0, Bahia 1, with 0 draws. These encounters tend to be high-scoring, averaging 4.0 goals per match. Both teams have found the net in the majority of their meetings. Goals are expected — Coritiba have seen Over 2.5 in 8/10 recent matches, Bahia in 8/10. Both teams to score looks likely given the BTTS record: Coritiba 7/10, Bahia 5/10.

The Elo ratings are fairly close (1618 vs 1678), indicating a competitive match.

Verdict

We give Bahia a slight edge at 36%, though this is a closely-contested fixture. The away side's form and tactical setup suggest they can steal a result. Confidence is lower than usual (58%), reflecting disagreement between our prediction models. Proceed with caution.

Form Comparison

Coritiba
Stat
Bahia
Last 5
1.8
Avg Scored
2.1
1.1
Avg Conceded
0.8
-
Avg Possession
-
4
Clean Sheets
5
6
League Pos
8

Head to Head

(1 matches)
0
Home Wins
0
Draws
1
Away Wins
Avg goals per match: 4.0 | BTTS: 1/1