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Brazil - Serie A | Regular Season - 17
Sat 23 May at 22:00
Grêmio
Elo: 1574
3 - 2
Santos
Elo: 1388
Prediction: Home Win (2-0)

Match Result Prediction

80%High
61%22%17%
HomeDrawAway
Most likely scoreline: 2-0

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
44%
BTTS Yes
55%

Model Breakdown

eloH: 64% | D: 20% | A: 16%
poissonH: 72% | D: 18% | A: 10%

AI Match Analysis

Powered by data-driven models

Independent analysis based on form, Elo ratings, H2H records, injuries, and squad data

Grêmio host Santos in the Serie A with significant stakes for both sides. Grêmio currently sit 14th in the table with 21 points, while Santos are 17thwith 18 points.

However, the visitors' backline has been suspect, leaking 1.7 per match. At home, Grêmio average 1.9 goals, while Santos concede 2.0 on the road — suggesting this could be a tight affair.

In head-to-head meetings (1 matches), Grêmio have won 0, Santos 1, with 0 draws. These encounters tend to be high-scoring, averaging 5.0 goals per match. Both teams have found the net in the majority of their meetings. Goals are expected — Grêmio have seen Over 2.5 in 8/10 recent matches, Santos in 8/10. Both teams to score looks likely given the BTTS record: Grêmio 8/10, Santos 8/10.

Our Elo model rates Grêmio significantly higher (1573 vs 1387), suggesting a clear quality advantage.

Verdict

Our analysis strongly favours Grêmio to take all three points. With a 61% win probability and a predicted scoreline of 2-0, the hosts have the edge in form, quality, and home advantage. Our confidence level is high (80%), with strong agreement across all prediction models (Elo, Poisson, and Form). On the goals front, Over 2.5 Goals (66%) looks a solid proposition.

Form Comparison

Grêmio
Stat
Santos
Last 5
1.7
Avg Scored
1.2
1.2
Avg Conceded
1.7
-
Avg Possession
-
3
Clean Sheets
1
14
League Pos
17

Head to Head

(1 matches)
0
Home Wins
0
Draws
1
Away Wins
Avg goals per match: 5.0 | BTTS: 1/1