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Italy - Serie A | Regular Season - 38
Sun 24 May at 18:45
Lecce
Elo: 1431
1 - 0
Genoa
Elo: 1504
Prediction: Away Win (1-1)

Match Result Prediction

59%Moderate
34%28%38%
HomeDrawAway
Most likely scoreline: 1-1

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
37%
BTTS Yes
63%

Model Breakdown

eloH: 32% | D: 30% | A: 38%
poissonH: 33% | D: 27% | A: 40%

AI Match Analysis

Powered by data-driven models

Independent analysis based on form, Elo ratings, H2H records, injuries, and squad data

Lecce host Genoa in the Serie A with significant stakes for both sides. Lecce currently sit 17th in the table with 38 points, while Genoa are 16thwith 41 points.

Defensively, they have been vulnerable, shipping 1.8 goals per game. At home, Lecce average 1.3 goals, while Genoa concede 1.7 on the road — suggesting this could be a tight affair.

In head-to-head meetings (1 matches), Lecce have won 1, Genoa 0, with 0 draws. Goals are expected — Lecce have seen Over 2.5 in 8/10 recent matches, Genoa in 8/10. Both teams to score looks likely given the BTTS record: Lecce 7/10, Genoa 9/10.

The Elo ratings are fairly close (1430 vs 1504), indicating a competitive match.

Verdict

We give Genoa a slight edge at 38%, though this is a closely-contested fixture. The away side's form and tactical setup suggest they can steal a result. Confidence is lower than usual (59%), reflecting disagreement between our prediction models. Proceed with caution.

Form Comparison

Lecce
Stat
Genoa
Last 5
1.1
Avg Scored
1.4
1.8
Avg Conceded
1.5
-
Avg Possession
-
1
Clean Sheets
2
17
League Pos
16

Head to Head

(1 matches)
1
Home Wins
0
Draws
0
Away Wins
Avg goals per match: 1.0 | BTTS: 0/1