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Spain - La Liga | Regular Season - 38
Sun 24 May at 19:00
Villarreal
Elo: 1729
5 - 1
Atleti
Elo: 1709
Prediction: Home Win (1-1)

Match Result Prediction

70%High
44%29%27%
HomeDrawAway
Most likely scoreline: 1-1

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
28%
BTTS Yes
53%

Model Breakdown

eloH: 42% | D: 28% | A: 30%
poissonH: 49% | D: 28% | A: 23%

AI Match Analysis

Powered by data-driven models

Independent analysis based on form, Elo ratings, H2H records, injuries, and squad data

Villarreal host Atleti in the La Liga with significant stakes for both sides. Villarreal currently sit 3rd in the table with 72 points, while Atleti are 4thwith 69 points.

Villarreal have been prolific this season, averaging 2.1 goals per game. Their defensive record is impressive, conceding only 0.8 per match with 5 clean sheets in their last 10. Atleti carry a dangerous attack averaging 2.0 goals. Atleti's defence has been solid, conceding just 0.9 per game. At home, Villarreal average 2.4 goals, while Atleti concede 1.0 on the road — a matchup that favours the hosts.

In head-to-head meetings (1 matches), Villarreal have won 0, Atleti 1, with 0 draws. These encounters tend to be high-scoring, averaging 6.0 goals per match. Both teams have found the net in the majority of their meetings. Goals are expected — Villarreal have seen Over 2.5 in 8/10 recent matches, Atleti in 8/10.

Elo ratings are virtually level (1729 vs 1708), making this a genuine coin-flip on paper.

Verdict

We lean towards Villarreal in this one, though it's not a certainty. At 44% probability, the hosts have a slight advantage but Atleti are more than capable of getting something from this match. We rate this prediction with moderate confidence (70%). The models show reasonable alignment, but some uncertainty remains.

Form Comparison

Villarreal
Stat
Atleti
Last 5
2.1
Avg Scored
2.0
0.8
Avg Conceded
0.9
-
Avg Possession
-
5
Clean Sheets
5
3
League Pos
4

Head to Head

(1 matches)
0
Home Wins
0
Draws
1
Away Wins
Avg goals per match: 6.0 | BTTS: 1/1